Download A Methodology for Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems by Kurt Weichselberger PDF

By Kurt Weichselberger

In this ebook the ensuing use of chance conception is proposed for dealing with uncertainty in professional platforms. it truly is proven that tools violating this recommendation could have harmful effects (e.g., the Dempster-Shafer rule and the strategy utilized in MYCIN). the need of a few requisites for an accurate combining of doubtful details in professional platforms is validated and compatible principles are supplied. the chance is considered that period estimates are given rather than designated information regarding chances. For combining details containing period estimates ideas are supplied that are worthy in lots of cases.

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Extra resources for A Methodology for Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems

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41 =U4 It is easy to verify t h a t this 4 - P R I is feasible, b u t it is d e g e n e r a t e , as LI + U2 + U3 + L4 = 0 . 1 2 + 0 . 2 4 + 0 . 3 6 + 0 . 2 8 = 1 a n d a d d i t i o n a l l y LI + U2 + L3 + U4 = 0 . 1 2 + 0 . 2 4 + 0 . 41 = 1 W e shall d e s i g n a t e c o n s t e l l a t i o n s which p r o d u c e t h e s a m e corner using t h e s a m e i n d e x of s. P(E,) = L , = 0 . 1 2 ; P(E2) =L2 = 0 . 1 5 P(E1) = L , = 0 . 1 2 ; P(Eu) =152 = 0 . 2 4 ; P(E3) = ; P(E3) =Us = 0 . 3 6 ~ L3 = 0 .

10; ; P(Ea) =L3 = 0 . 2 0 P(E2) = L2 = 0 . 1 0 ; P(E3) = Ua = 0 . 3 0 ; P(E4) = L4 = 0 . 4 8 ~ P(E2) = U 2 = 0 . 3 0 ; P(E3) = L3 = 0 . 2 0 ; P(E4) = L4 = 0 . 4 8 ~ P(E1) = 0 . 1 2 : : Slo t P(E1) = 0 . 3O ; P(E3) = Ua = 0 . 3 0 ; P(E4) = L4 = 0 . 4 8 ~ P(E1) = - 0 . 0 8 : t P(E2) = U2 = 0 . 3 0 ; P(E3) = La = 0 . 2 0 ; P(E4) = U4 = 0 . 5 2 ~ P(Ex) = - 0 . 0 2 : t P(E2) = L2 = 0 . 1 0 ; P(Ea) = Ua = 0 . 3 0 ; P(E4) = U4 = 0 . 5 2 ~ P(E1) = 0 . 0 8 : si2 T h e s t r u c t u r e S* of this 4 - P R I is therefore t h e set of all w e i g h t e d averages of t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n s sl to [] s12.

There is a large group of k-PRIs for which basic probability numbers cannot be found. This group will be introduced in the following example. 4): O : {E1,E2,E3} For simplicity we consider estimates which use the same probability interval for El, E2 and E3. In this case the estimates are reasonable if the interval contains the value 1/3. Let us assume that the following four competing estimates are under consideration. 35 i = 1,2,3 It is easy to control that all of these PRIs are not only reasonable but also feasible.

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